Pakistan in Turmoil

Pakistan was thrown into political chaos on Saturday when President Pervez Musharraf declared 'emergency rule', fired the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, and placed many of the nations leading judges, lawyers, and opposition party members in state custody. From CNN:

"Musharraf's declaration [of emergency rule] noted a "visible ascendancy in the activities of extremists and incidents of terrorist attacks" and it blamed a judiciary that was "at cross purposes" with his government's efforts "to control this menace.""

This is the second time this year that the Chief Justice, Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, has been fired. His strict interpretation of the Pakistani constitution appears to be preventing Musharraf from running the type of dictatorship that he sees necessary. Again from CNN:

"Chaudhry, who was reinstated to the court in July, has led key rulings that have weakened Musharraf's grip on power -- including lifting the exile imposed on opposition leader Nawaz Sharif, who was ousted by Musharraf in a 1999 bloodless coup."

As you might imagine, this whole situation creates a difficult spot for the US. Musharraf's government has emerged as a reluctant ally in the war on terrorism; additionally, Pakistan has become perhaps the most important location on the planet for controlling the training and supplying of radical Islamic fighters. While Musharraf certainly could have done more to help the US and its allies in the region, he has at least allowed access to the country's most troubled locales.

This is where the problem arises, the administration wants to support democracy and needs the government of Pakistan to support its continued fight in the area, but it is unsure of what type of reception it would get from a democratically elected one. The administration risks hypocrisy if it gives full support to the dictator Musharraf, but it risks heavy military and strategic losses if it doesn't.

AT this point the Bush administration seems to be erring on the side of supporting democracy in Pakistan. Bush has demanded that the current regime hold elections as soon as possible, and that Musharraf should remove his ties to the military. The administration has also threatened to cut aid to Pakistan, but it is unlikely that this will happen for fear of alienating moderate Muslims. Since aid is the only practical leverage that the US has against the Musharraf regime look for lots of talking coming out of Washington, but little to no action designed to oust the current government.

For more information - The New York Times has an article on the initial government crackdown here. CNN has excellent running coverage on the crisis, which can be found here. Finally, Slate has an article explaining why Pakistani lawyers always seem to be mixing it up with government forces; find that here.